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Le Z-Score d'Altman, formule anti-crise?


Le Z-score d’ Edward Altman est un modèle de prévision de faillites à partir de ratio pondérés. La mesure prend en compte la liquidité, la solvabilité, la rentabilité, l’activité et la croissance
Ce modèle en échantillonnant des sociétés en faillite, a un score de réussite de 95% un an avant la faillite.

· Z score =1,2.X1 + 1,4.X2 + 3,3.X3 + 0,6.X4 + X5
· X1 = Capital Circulant/Total des Actifs,
· X2 = Profits Retenus/Total des Actifs,
· X3=Profits avant frais financiers et impôts/Total des Actifs, X4=Capitalisation Boursière/Valeur Comptable des Passifs,
· X5 = Ventes/Total des Actifs.


Un score inférieur à 1.10 indique que la faillite est probable dans un délai de 1 à 2 ans.
Un score Supérieur à 2.6 est un indicateur de bonne santé.
L’utilisation du Z-score,en période de crise permet d’amélioré les performances en éliminant les entreprises avec des fondamentaux médiocres; le risque de faillite est amplifié par la crise. 

Bourse US: Faible P/E, P/B et P/CF

Les sociétés faiblement valorisées que se soit au niveau du PER, du P/B ou du PCF ont un rendement supérieur.
En cas de bonne surprise, meilleur bénéfice que prévu, elles sur réagissent car on en attendait rien.
Cette sélection est inspirée par la lecture de "Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation" PaDavid Dreman.
Sélection: P/E <=15,  P/B<=2, P/CF <=12, distribue un dividende d’au moins de 2% et meilleur bénéfice que prévu.
Symbol P/E Return On Average Equity [%] Price to Book Price to Cash Flow Dividend Yield [%] Quarter EPS % surprise Annual EPS % surprise Company Name
AYR 9.02 8.93 0.6 2.32 4.26 89.12 15.76 AIRCASTLE LTD.
HLND 6.73 13.05 0.77 1.7 17.82 137.29 2.8 HILAND PARTNERS LP
FLY 3.81 12.69 0.68 2.33 7.27 17.75 4.5 BABCOCK & BROWN AIR LTD
UMC 7.74 7.55 0.88 4.12 7.63 212.5 38.54 UNITED MICRO
DEER 2.75 24.19 0.59 2.56 6.14 8.33 2.61 DEER CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC
CXS 6.01 18.14 0.86 7.35 10.87 68.92 24.34 CREXUS INVESTMENT CORP
LINC 6.46 7.61 0.65 3.44 11.97 13.13 3.07 LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP
UTR 8.03 7.19 0.71 3.22 3.64 28.57 8.3 UNITRIN
BP 6.28 24.89 1.19 3.57 4 51.85 13.88 BP P.L.C.
SUP 7.41 15.37 1.09 5.3 3.47 114.96 20.08 SUPERIOR INDS
PGF 9.39 7.43 1.09 4.95 7.35 72.74 12.61 PENGROWTH ENERGY CORP
VLCCF 5.87 9.64 0.79 5.41 16.89 10.39 2.77 KNIGHTSBR TANK
NAFC 9.37 9.16 0.78 4.43 2.78 19.02 17.35 NASH FINCH COMPANY
HMN 7.5 7.17 0.65 7.32 2.58 37.14 20 HORACE MANN
BPO 6.38 18.58 1 5.06 3.1 138.19 1.81 BROOKFIELD PROP
PRU 8.14 10.29 0.75 2.4 2.43 12.2 3.11 PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL
HCBK 6.6 -14.62 0.77 4.79 5.86 1.06 1.32 HUDSON CITY BANCORP INC.
CTB 3.84 48.82 1.66 2.45 2.72 32.71 12.16 COOPER TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY
PL 7.17 8.98 0.54 7.19 2.2 23.49 5.31 PROTECTIVE LIFE
HCII 9.08 16.57 1.18 8.09 4.36 100 40.31 HOMEOWNER
MET 6.01 12.35 0.63 4.74 2.12 5.01 2.15 METLIFE INC
RBCAA 5.35 21.61 0.94 4.68 2.57 11.84 1.24 REPUBLIC BANCP
DECC 9.86 -0.21 1.06 5.67 4.33 4.76 31.08 D&E COMM
DK 5.76 28.87 1.39 3.83 2.11 57.13 1.86 DELEK US HLDG INC
EVBN 9.6 9.26 0.86 7.47 2.8 37.5 7.19 EVANS BANCORP
SYA 7.85 7.24 0.43 6.17 2.02 10.79 2.03 SYMETRA FINANCIAL CORPORATION
HBNC 9.4 12.71 0.94 6.3 2.25 46.25 3.76 HORIZON BANCORP
BLX 9.61 11.43 1.05 9.3 3.95 57.8 8.04 BANCO LATINOAMER
AYE 9.91 12.56 1.24 5.82 2.38 50.74 14.53 ALLEGHENY ENERGY INC.
ETR 8.7 15.43 1.29 4.75 5.06 3.5 1.91 ENTERGY  CORP.
HSC 8.03 -0.72 1.46 5.68 3.85 17.07 4.2 HARSCO
NOC 8.34 17.55 1.52 6.05 3.11 24.62 6.2 NORTHROP GRUMMAN
MGA 9.64 12.57 1.31 6.31 2.18 43.49 10.85 MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC.
PPL 8.81 15.62 1.45 5.78 5.3 12.81 3.02 PPL CORPORATION
TAP 10.68 8.73 0.97 8.37 3 41.46 7.12 MOLSON COORS BREWING COMPANY
CMO 7.6 14.24 1.06 8.58 13.22 4.42 1.46 CAPSTEAD MORTGAGE CORPORATION
EBF 8.98 10.81 1.11 8.18 4.01 3.85 6.17 ENNIS BUSINESS
ARCC 9.72 10.31 1.05 11.1 8.78 23.43 5.25 ARES CAPITAL CORP
COP 10.13 18.59 1.44 4.54 3.62 14.62 3.2 CONOCOPHILLIPS
CNP 10.87 20.75 1.97 5.03 4.05 36.36 12.05 CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC.
NHC 11.54 13.32 1.42 7.47 2.62 57.14 20.44 NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
TCAP 6.69 22.06 1.32 9.31 9.11 6.94 1.7 TRIANGLE

Bourse US: RRR50


RRR50x
Ticker Price PER P/FCF P/B EpsGrwthP5y ROI PEG PEG Y+1 EPSgrwthNY EpsGrwthN5Y TotDbtEq Company
HFC 29.75 4.85 8.71 1.20 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.34 -0.27 0.22 0.23 HollyFrontier Corporation
KS 17.89 6.85 8.86 1.52 1.19 0.15 0.27 0.36 0.13 0.25 0.63 KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation
BRKS 11.77 7.09 12.38 1.52 0.45 0.21 0.39 0.65 0.38 0.18 0.00 Brooks Automation Inc.
TRW 43.78 4.96 9.87 1.84 0.38 0.20 1.38 1.81 0.12 0.03 0.52 TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.
DV 32.26 9.60 11.18 1.59 0.50 0.16 1.92 1.87 -0.03 0.05 0.00 DeVry, Inc.
CF 186.67 8.46 6.94 2.69 1.05 0.22 0.69 0.76 -0.14 0.12 0.36 CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
VECO 27.73 6.12 19.52 1.22 0.57 0.24 2.28 5.07 0.87 0.02 0.00 Veeco Instruments Inc.
HS 55.00 13.72 5.04 2.22 0.70 0.15 1.04 0.95 0.04 0.13 0.20 HealthSpring Inc.
KBR 34.38 10.88 9.50 2.04 0.52 0.16 0.85 0.86 0.17 0.12 0.04 KBR, Inc.
EBIX 21.10 12.13 11.23 2.41 0.52 0.22 0.61 0.56 0.18 0.20 0.15 Ebix Inc.
BPI 21.30 7.08 5.97 3.12 0.45 0.54 0.39 0.41 0.08 0.18 0.00 Bridgepoint Education, Inc.
SWC 11.50 8.78 11.24 1.57 0.75 0.13 2.83 3.47 0.46 0.03 0.23 Stillwater Mining Co.
AVT 35.29 8.02 9.04 1.33 0.25 0.13 1.71 1.68 0.08 0.04 0.51 Avnet Inc.
DAR 16.35 11.12 10.64 2.08 0.84 0.13 3.71 3.22 0.25 0.03 0.30 Darling International Inc.
GTAT 7.53 6.17 6.20 3.67 0.51 0.38 0.56 0.43 0.05 0.11 0.00 GT Advanced Technologies Inc.
KLIC 12.27 7.53 4.46 1.88 0.13 0.24 0.56 0.55 0.48 0.13 0.22 Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc.
DDS 63.40 7.28 8.36 1.53 0.22 0.13 1.32 2.20 -0.04 0.05 0.44 Dillard's Inc.
ENTR 5.00 16.67 8.41 1.47 0.57 0.09 0.92 0.47 0.15 0.18 0.00 Entropic Communications, Inc.
JCOM 25.80 10.66 9.21 2.18 0.18 0.21 1.31 1.20 0.04 0.08 0.00 j2 Global, Inc.
LZB 14.26 9.70 12.48 1.72 0.24 0.15 2.43 3.79 0.44 0.04 0.07 La-Z-Boy Inc.
TECD 53.42 11.41 4.79 1.11 0.25 0.09 1.23 0.92 0.09 0.09 0.05 Tech Data Corp.
CVG 13.33 4.97 14.29 1.09 0.17 0.18 0.61 1.78 0.19 0.08 0.09 Convergys Corporation
CPLA 34.32 10.12 9.21 2.93 0.26 0.25 0.73 0.72 0.10 0.13 0.00 Capella Education Co.
DLB 38.06 14.31 10.93 2.40 0.27 0.17 1.10 1.13 3.9e-03 0.13 0.00 Dolby Laboratories, Inc.
SNX 36.98 8.60 6.95 1.11 0.20 0.11 0.86 0.81 0.09 0.10 0.25 SYNNEX Corp.
HUM 90.00 10.65 8.72 1.83 0.23 0.12 1.10 1.04 0.11 0.09 0.24 Humana Inc.
F 11.41 2.28 7.93 2.90 0.26 0.18 0.46 1.35 0.17 0.04 6.62 Ford Motor Co.
CJES 16.38 5.30 27.47 2.15 1.01 0.51 0.27 0.20 0.03 0.20 0.00 C&J Energy Services, Inc.
MGM 13.52 2.44 17.68 1.09 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.64 0.13 2.21 MGM Resorts International
NX 17.30 5.79 4.00 1.48 0.18 0.11 0.39 1.60 1.57 0.15 0.13 Quanex Building Products Corporation
ENTG 8.54 10.41 10.43 1.87 0.14 0.19 0.99 1.03 0.16 0.10 0.00 Entegris, Inc.
GME 22.38 9.21 6.52 1.01 0.19 0.10 0.96 0.67 0.08 0.09 0.00 GameStop Corp.
SYNA 32.42 19.30 11.14 2.93 0.49 0.15 1.54 0.93 0.16 0.12 0.01 Synaptics Inc.
ACOM 23.94 18.42 8.71 3.30 0.43 0.17 1.12 0.78 0.28 0.16 0.03 Ancestry.com Inc.
UTHR 42.09 11.79 10.54 2.35 0.19 0.18 0.45 0.33 0.17 0.26 0.28 United Therapeutics Corporation
SHS 43.23 9.12 6.50 4.30 0.33 0.34 0.65 0.14 0.41 Sauer-Danfoss Inc.
IRBT 24.52 17.03 15.71 2.75 0.59 0.18 1.14 1.28 0.34 0.14 0.00 iRobot Corporation
MDCO 19.74 8.40 12.17 2.10 0.13 0.27 0.84 1.70 0.13 0.10 0.00 Medicines Co.
MANT 31.53 8.69 7.95 1.07 0.17 0.10 1.22 1.29 -0.02 0.07 0.18 ManTech International Corporation
ANDE 49.97 9.84 5.33 1.76 0.18 0.10 0.73 0.77 0.06 0.13 0.65 The Andersons, Inc.
LFUS 60.07 15.48 14.64 2.58 0.30 0.16 1.55 1.37 0.14 0.10 0.17 Littelfuse Inc.
BZ 7.49 10.55 5.23 0.95 0.36 0.04 0.53 0.38 0.19 0.20 1.01 Boise Inc.
LXU 38.01 10.59 18.79 2.89 0.35 0.23 1.06 0.81 0.28 0.10 0.29 LSB Industries Inc.
BKI 32.86 17.11 12.86 2.23 1.25 0.10 2.14 1.25 0.13 0.08 0.15 Buckeye Technologies Inc.
SNPS 29.61 19.23 12.86 1.96 0.53 0.09 2.26 1.58 0.08 0.08 0.00 Synopsys Inc.
PMCS 6.98 19.39 11.40 1.45 0.40 0.07 1.94 1.14 0.24 0.10 0.06 PMC-Sierra Inc.
APEI 35.05 15.72 13.87 4.67 0.61 0.33 0.76 0.61 0.18 0.20 0.00 American Public Education, Inc.
ESI 59.63 5.37 4.13 9.23 0.32 0.87 0.89 1.32 -0.05 0.06 0.89 ITT Educational Services Inc.
CA 26.56 14.59 12.67 2.23 0.42 0.10 1.51 1.10 0.11 0.09 0.23 CA Technologies
DSW 56.19 16.01 18.44 3.09 0.25 0.31 1.28 1.20 0.12 0.12 0.00 DSW Inc. 

Sélection Euronext Formule Magique & Piotroski

Valeurs Euronext sélectionnées avec la formule Magique de Greenblatt et filtrées au moyen du F-score de Piotroski.

Symb  Piotroski F-Score PBV PCF Return on Average Assets MF Earnings Yield MF Return on Capital Raison Sociale
MDL:PAR 7.5 0.93 7.3 2.86% 33.29% 352.64% Modelabs Group SA, MDL
VAC:PAR 7.5 1.31 3.87 8.40% 92.94% 108.30% Pierre et Vacances SA, VAC
MON:PAR 8 0.43 1.55 4.32% 21.44% 190.97% Montupet SA, MON
ITE:PAR 8 0.87 8.22 4.12% 70.65% 50.00% Itesoft SA, ITE
MACIN:AEX 8 1.47 8.45 3.28% 39.78% 50.00% Macintosh Retail Group NV, MACIN
BND:PAR 9 1.4 4.01 3.76% 14.71% 60.88% Business & Decision SA, BND
IEC:PAR 8 1.38 5.44 3.91% 23.92% 32.59% IEC Professionnel Media SA, IEC
TWEKA:AEX 8.5 0.47 2.19 1.84% 11.83% 109.95% TKH Group NV, TWEKA
VIV:PAR 8 1.32 7.89 7.57% 11.86% 77.73% Vivendi SA, VIV
ZTS:BRU 7 0.57 2.5 4.10% 12.72% 51.51% Zetes Industries SA, ZTS
SGO:PAR 7 1.24 9.5 3.56% 14.07% 45.93% Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA, SGO
ALMIL:PAR 8.5 0.88 7.43 1.51% 31.30% 25.45% 1000mercis SA, ALMIL
VETO:PAR 7.5 1.32 7.89 7.57% 10.64% 74.86% Vetoquinol SA, VETO
ASM:AEX 7.5 0.9 26.2 2.94% 12.85% 35.08% ASM International NV, ASM
MPNG:PAR 8.5 0.43 1.55 4.32% 21.25% 15.87% Maurel & Prom Nigeria SA, MPNG
NYR:BRU 7.5 1.54 12.5 4.76% 8.49% 54.63% Nyrstar, NYR
NTG:PAR 8 1.54 12.5 4.76% 11.99% 29.05% Netgem SA, NTG
CRI:PAR 7.5 0.31 2.17 2.36% 14.56% 12.47% Chargeurs SA, CRI
ALP:PAR 7.5 0.51 4.19 4.47% 13.72% 12.75% Adlpartner SA, ALP
GBB:PAR 7.5 0.65 2.37 12.91% 8.76% 29.82% Bourbon SA, GBB
LEY:PAR 7.5 0.48 1.68 5.81% 9.95% 22.56% Faiveley Transport SA, LEY
VIRP:PAR 7.5 1.32 7.89 7.57% 6.83% 42.48% Virbac SA, VIRP
DEC:PAR 7 0.74 6.71 3.78% 6.64% 39.22% JCDecaux SA, DEC
VOW3:GER 7 0.57 2.5 4.10% 5.83% 38.60% Volkswagen AG, VOW3
VCT:PAR 7.5 1.31 3.87 8.40% 7.96% 21.03% Vicat SA, VCT
ETL:PAR 8 1.23 4.28 6.41% 7.82% 20.28% Eutelsat Communications SA, ETL
ICT:AEX 7.5 0.6 4.74 15.83% 9.49% 10.99% Ict Automatisering NV, ICT
VK:PAR 8.5 1.32 7.89 7.57% 6.17% 21.15% Vallourec SA, VK
HAL:AEX 8.5 1.58 7.97 9.00% 6.78% 19.33% Hal Trust, HAL
CS:PAR 8.5 0.31 2.17 2.36% 4.72% 24.70% Axa SA, CS
JEN:BRU 7.5 1.03 7.56 3.01% 10.83% 4.94% Jensen Group NV, JEN
MLZAM:PAR 7 0.6 1.08 1.90% 0.00% 14.50% ZCCM Investments Holdings PLC, MLZAM
ABLX:BRU 8 #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.43% 4.71% Ablynx NV, ABLX
MRN:PAR 8 1.04 7.31 6.08% 3.00% 4.13% Mersen SA, MRN
TRAN:BRU 7.5 1.1 4.01 3.11% 1.66% 1.51% Transics International NV, TRAN

Portefeuille 'Value' Euronext

Portefeuille de valeurs "Value" cotées sur Euronext, que  j’ai débuté  le 7 juillet 2011.
Chaque mois j'ajoute +- 2 actions.
Les actions ne pourront pas rester dans le portefeuille plus de 2/3 ans, elles pourront sortir beaucoup plus tôt.
Dernières entrée: MPNG et MGIC

Symbol Market Cap PER Shares Cost basis Mkt value Gain Gain % Overall Return Nom
AALB 1.60B 12.15 70 1043 1038.1 -4.9 -0.47% -0.47% Aalberts Industries N.V.
ACCEL 333.30M 7.74 60 1011 948 -63 -6.23% -6.23% Accell Group N.V.
ACOMO 297.10M 11.15 120 1152 1533.6 381.6 33.12% 33.12% Amsterdam Commodities...
ADI 112.45M 11.06 0 0 0 0 0.00% 2.97% Audika
ALP 56.19M 6.15 100 1070 1360 290 27.10% 27.10% ADLPartner SA
BAR 681.71M 9.59 25 1000 1418.3 418.25 41.83% 41.83% Barco NV
BESI 211.02M 8.08 200 1034 1150 116 11.22% 11.22% BE Semicond. Industries...
CFEB 562.84M 9.53 25 1025 1074.8 49.75 4.85% 4.85% Compagnie d'Entreprises...
ELI 1.98B 14.42 37 1009.4 1215.1 205.64 20.37% 16.43% Elia System Operator...
ESI 86.73M 14.61 90 1139.4 1434.6 295.2 25.91% 25.91% ESI Group SA
EVS 511.59M 16.33 30 1173 1141.8 -31.2 -2.66% -2.66% EVS Broadcast Equipment...
MGIC 102.66M 4.46 30 1188 1151.7 -36.3 -3.06% -3.06% MGI Coutier
MPNG 246.82M 13.08 500 1010 1070 60 5.94% 5.94% Maurel & Prom Nigeria SA
NTG 85.72M 9.28 0 0 0 0 0.00% 21.85% Netgem SA
POM 1.01B 6.36 56 1016.4 1176 159.6 15.70% 15.70% Compagnie Plastic...
RCF 1.14B 12.59 48 1017.6 991.2 -26.4 -2.59% -2.59% Teleperformance SA
SCDV 76.41M 8.03 33 1138.5 1056 -82.5 -7.25% -7.25% Securidev SA
SFT 15.94M 16.66 250 1040 1500 460 44.23% 44.23% Soft Computing SA
SGO 16.05B 12.61 30 1060.2 915.3 -144.9 -13.67% -13.67% Compagnie de Saint...
SIPH 359.82M 5.3 14 1066.1 995.4 -70.7 -6.63% -6.63% SIPH SA
SPI 121.06M 1.05 48 1007.5 954.72 -52.8 -5.24% -5.24% Spir Communication SA
VWA 11 1177 1252.2 75.24 6.39% 6.39% VOLKSWAGEN
Caisse

995.48


Total
21378 24372 1998.6 9.35% 9.70%

Bourse US: Formule Magique et Piotroski

Actions sélectionnée avec la Formule Magique de Greenblatt et ayant un F-Score de Piotroski supérieur ou égal à 7.

Ticker Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield  Piotroski F-Score Zacks Rank Company name
PDLI        897 26% 1516832% 9.4% 7 3 PDL BioPharma, In
GNI        144 17% 968% 15.6% 8 N/A Great Northern Ir
APOL      4,413 23% 175% 0.0% 7 3 Apollo Group, Inc
FRX      9,198 20% 176% 0.0% 7 3 Forest Laboratori
EGY        540 31% 126% 0.0% 7 N/A Vaalco Energy Inc
JCOM      1,257 13% 1032% 2.3% 7 3 j2 Global, Inc.
MGLN      1,320 19% 165% 0.0% 7 3 Magellan Health S
GME      2,941 25% 114% 0.7% 7 2 Gamestop Corporat
UEPS        405 23% 120% 0.0% 7 4 Net 1 UEPS Techno
CJES        913 30% 85% 0.0% 9 3 C&J Energy Servic
WSTG          68 17% 163% 5.5% 8 N/A Wayside Technolog
ATVI    14,384 12% 838% 1.4% 8 3 Activision Blizza
SOHU      1,974 16% 142% 0.0% 7 5 Sohu.com Inc.
TNH      4,667 11% 657% 6.8% 9 N/A Terra Nitrogen Co
MSFT  261,876 12% 338% 2.3% 7 3 Microsoft Corpora
NATR        244 18% 117% 0.0% 7 N/A Nature's Sunshine
WNR      1,839 34% 58% 0.2% 8 2 Western Refining 
DLB      4,122 13% 210% 0.0% 7 2 Dolby Laboratorie
RTN    17,823 15% 148% 3.4% 7 3 Raytheon Company 
NOC    15,524 18% 108% 3.3% 8 4 Northrop Grumman 
CSCO  109,658 12% 262% 1.3% 7 2 Cisco Systems, In
USNA        549 15% 127% 0.0% 8 4 USANA Health Scie
LO    17,746 10% 722% 4.0% 7 2 Lorillard, Inc Co
CA    12,783 10% 375% 1.5% 8 4 CA Inc.
ORCL  145,074 10% 469% 0.8% 7 3 Oracle Corporatio
LRAD          49 16% 111% 0.0% 8 N/A LRAD Corporation
CF    12,251 19% 68% 0.7% 9 3 CF Industries Hol
WCRX      4,049 10% 361% 0.0% 8 3 Warner Chilcott p
CSGS        513 16% 84% 0.0% 9 4 CSG Systems Inter
VPHM      2,150 11% 257% 0.0% 7 3 ViroPharma Incorp
CHE      1,209 11% 190% 1.0% 7 3 Chemed Corp
MHP    13,568 9% 292% 2.1% 8 2 McGraw-Hill Compa
MCK    21,630 11% 211% 0.9% 8 2 McKesson Corporat
COOL        100 14% 102% 0.0% 7 3 Majesco Entertain
EXPR      2,198 12% 120% 0.0% 7 3 Express, Inc. Com
EDMC      1,852 15% 67% 0.0% 7 3 Education Managem
LLL      6,928 16% 59% 2.6% 7 2 L-3 Communication
CUB      1,240 12% 109% 0.5% 8 2 Cubic Corporation
DAR      2,046 14% 69% 0.0% 8 3 Darling Internati
BKE      2,350 11% 124% 6.2% 8 2 Buckle, Inc. (The
NVDA      9,025 11% 121% 0.0% 7 3 NVIDIA Corporatio
CACI      1,629 13% 89% 0.0% 8 2 CACI Internationa
SCCO    26,460 13% 68% 6.6% 8 3 Southern Copper C
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